I waited until today to write a prediction post because I definitely went on preseason speculation overload this year.  With a big game like Alabama to start the season, the media and fanboards have been in quite the flurry recently.  The game looked to be a solid match up, but then Darren Evans went down with an ACL injury.  Now, the media and Alabama fans have all but declared themselves victorious. 

“The Hokies don’t have a chance,” they say.  “Tyrod Taylor can’t throw and with Evans out, I don’t know how they’ll score!”

That’s all well and good.  I can’t say I agree, but the gumps will figure that out in due time.  The most faulty logic, that I will attempt to resolve, is that Alabama will roll over Virginia Tech just like they did Clemson last year.  Alabama held the Tigers to zero yards rushing and didn’t give up an offensive touchdown while racking up 419 yards themselves.  Since the big elephants kicked the poor overhyped ACC team in the mouth last year, certainly they can just do the same thing again eh?

Taking a line from Corso, “Not so fast my friend!” The first problem with your logic is that 2009 is not the same as 2008.  Alabama lost talent on both sides on the ball, but especially offensive blockers (losing three offensive linemen, and both starting tight ends).

The second logic problem is that Virginia Tech is not Clemson.  Clemson hasn’t won the ACC since 1991.  Clemson hasn’t beaten Virginia Tech since 1989 (but only 5 contests since then).  The most recent matchup was a blowout in 2007, when the Hokies were once again picked to lose.  In that game, Clemson was held to just 8 yards rushing with Davis and Spiller and the backfield.

The third problem is that this isn’t a math test.  I’d be surprised if either offense does much very consistently; offensive yards is not a statistic you will want to share with your next opponent.  Tyrod Taylor hasn’t had the best passing statistics in the past, but that does not mean he is incapable.  Taylor has an instinct for winning and that’s good enough for me in this game.

It’s amazing that no one in the media has noticed the similarities of 2009 Alabama to 2008 Clemson.  Over-hyped Clemson was crushed because of their inexperienced offensive line (well, and the fact that they roll over for any physical team) going against one of the best defenses in the country.  Alabama wasn’t given much of a chance by the media or Tiger fans.

I was going to refuse to pick a winner, because honestly, this game could fall either way based on opportunistic play from both sides.  However, seeing Bama fans continuously make predictions like 38-7 (which is even worse than they beat Clemson?) has emboldened me to say Virginia Tech 27 - Alabama 20.

I say Hokies come out with a chip on their shoulder and prove that they’ve arrived.

The Hokies decided to looked like a real team against Boston College.  The offense was firing on all cylinders, although we’re still not sure how many cylinders they have.  The defense was stifling, especially against the run.  The freshmen QB for Boston College definitely lacked confidence in the second half however.

Tyrod Taylor was named the Most Valuable Player of the Championship Game with two rushing touchdowns and some decent yardage passing.  His official game stats were:

11/19 for 84 yards passing, and one unfortunate interception
11 carries for 29 yards, with two “awe heck, I’ll do it myself” touchdowns

Notoriously missing from this game was the ‘Wild Turkey’ formation with Boone taking snaps.  I suspect this is because the BC defensive line dominated the Hokies O-line for the majority of the plays.  Although VT’s offensive playcalling is at time abysmal, I expect that 9/10 wild turkey plays would have resulted in a loss of yards.  But, it would have been fun to see Boone truck roll an All-American defensive line.

No Sean Glennon either…this was Tyrod Taylor all the way.  I didn’t swear at the TV nearly as much

Final Score: VT 30 - BC 12

Reflections on early season predictions…

I gave VT the best odds in the coastal to reach the championship game at 2:1.  After seeing the season, I would have made these odds a little bit less “sure of themselves.”  Clearly GT was better than many expected and will likely roll the poor bastards they match up against in their bowl game.

In the atlantic…well, what can you do?  I gave FSU the best odds, followed by Wake and Clem.  Alas, BC was fourth in my predictions; I thought the lack of a QB would have affected them more severely.  I clearly forgot that they win their games the way the Hokies do…defense, running, and playmakers (luck).

Well, I’ll leave you with an unspoken fact about BC (although I said it last year)…

 BC HAS NEVER WON A FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

Its an unfortunate true story for the Eagles…even when they had the media’s darling QBs Ryan and Flutie.  Of course Flutie’s excuse was that they weren’t in a conference that year.  I don’t want to hear excuses about a share of the Big East in 2004 either…shares don’t count.

Although ESPN dimwitties can’t figure it out, Virginia Tech now holds the top spot in the coastal.  Sure its a five-way tie, with that whole pile of teams having three in-conference losses, but the Hokies win the tie-breaks.  I won’t break everything down for you (try here and here if you are interested), but if the Hokies beat Duke tomorrow and UVgay (216 anyone?) next week, they will roll onto the ACC Championship game in Tampa.

A blessing or a curse?
I don’t know if its really a good thing that the team goes to the ACC Championship game.  There are disaster scenarios I can play out in my head.  But can it really be a bad thing for the program to play for the ACC title again?  No, but it might be a bad thing for the conference.  Is VT really the best team in the coastal?  I seriously doubt it.

Lucky for the Hokies, that doesn’t come into the tie-breaker scenarios.

Disaster Scenario 1
The Hokies can’t handle the pressure and lose to either Duke or UVA…I feel guilty even mentioning it…

Disaster Scenario 2
Hokies go to Tampa and get blown out by someone…unlikely that they will get blown out, but they certainly will have a chance to lose.

Disaster Scenario 3
Hokies win in Tampa and go to the Orange bowl…and have to play against a good SEC or Big 12 South team and get rocked.

Miracle Scenario 1
Hokies beat UVA knocking them out of bowl eligibility (because they lose to Clem this weekend) and advance to Tampa.

Miracle Scenario 2
VT pulls a draw of Maryland or Wake for the ACC Championship game.  Of course, no game in the ACC is a given, but the fighting gobblers have a much better shot against one of these teams instead of FSU or BC.

Miracle Scenario 3
Virginia Tech wins the ACC Championship game and advances to the Orange Bowl…where they could face a crappy Big Least team like Cincinnati and dominate.  Weren’t they on the schedule a couple years ago as a cupcake?  Yeah, they’re probably better, but I’ll take a Big East team over a good SEC or Big 12 team any day.